中国新时代

The New Chinese Era

By William Rees-Mogg • March 6th, 2009 The Daily Reckoning Australia

1977年，我第一次访问中国。当时，伦敦的《泰晤士报》安排一团英国商务人士同中国开展贸易协议。作为《泰晤士报》的编辑，我是该团的副团长，需要进行大量工作性质的握手。幸运的是，我们能够带上自己的妻子。

30年过去了，中国的变化令人难以置信。对于了解中国的过去的人们来说，中国发生的相对变化会令他吃惊。相比从前的中国来说，新的中国无疑是更加开放，也更为自由了。

同样，中国经济的恢复在当前经济衰退之际也是世界的最大希望。只要看一看美国、德国和中国对经济衰退的反应，人们就会为中国人的力量和信心留下深刻印象。按照它们对世界经济复苏的贡献大小，我把三国的顺序排列为中国、美国和德国。

约瑟夫·顺彼得认为，“大萧条”是“创造性的破坏”。他认为，周期性的衰退和萧条可以涤荡过时的经济体制，代之以新的体制。

在过去的33年中，中国经济以比美国大两到三倍的速度增长。尽管日本经济的表现令人失望，但亚洲经济还是从西方经济体手中接过了领导权。

我认为，中国这种杰出的表现随着世界的复苏还会继续。我们现在可以看到三个世纪：1815-1914年英帝国的世纪，1945-2008年美国的世纪，2030-2100年或者更长时期的中国的世纪。中国正在超过西方，而且当前的经济衰退将加速这一进程。

(作者威廉·里斯-莫格为英国《泰晤士报》前总编辑)
William Rees-MoggLeading political editor William Rees-Mogg is former editor-in-chief for The Times and a member of the House of Lords. He has been credited with accurately forecasting glasnost and the fall of the Berlin Wall – as well as the 1987 crash. His political commentary appears in The Times every Monday. His financial insights can only be found in the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment newsletter.

I first visited China in 1977. The London Times had arranged to take a group of businessmen from Britain to open up trade contacts. As Editor of The Times I was the Deputy Leader of the group and had to do a good deal of formal handshaking. Fortunately we were able to take our wives with us as part of the ceremonies of speaking and feasting.

It is now thirty two years since we made that visit. The change in China has been beyond belief. In 1977, China was still a land of bicycles and physical labour. It was also a land of absolute authoritarian orthodoxy. One would get on an aircraft, leaving behind an obsequious official, spouting the party line. One would disembark a thousand miles away, and be greeted by another official minder, repeating the same party line, almost without a pause.

People still criticise the monolithic power of the Chinese Communist Party, but the relative change is what strikes anyone who knew the old China. China may not respect civil rights or allow certain kinds of free political discussion, but the new China is inexorably much more open and free than the old China.

That is just as well, as it is becoming apparent that the resilience of the Chinese economy is the world's best hope in the present depression. If one looks at the reaction to recession of the United States, Germany and China, one is impressed by the strength and confidence of the Chinese response. I would list the three powers in the order of China, the United States and Germany, for their contribution to the process of world recovery.

Joseph Schumpeter analysed the Great Depression in terms of "creative destruction". He thought that cyclical recessions and depressions wiped away obsolete economic systems and allowed them to be replaced by fresh structures. Recessions are necessary to speed up the capitalist forces of change.

For the last 33 years, the Chinese economy has been growing two to three times as fast as the United States, and that has continued even in a year of recession. The Asian economy has been taking over the lead from the Western economy, though the performance of the Japanese economy has been disappointing.

I expect that this Chinese outperformance will continue as the world moves into recovery. We can now see the pattern of the three centuries: 1815-1914 the British Empire; 1945-2008, the American era; about 2030 -2100 or beyond, the new Chinese era. China is overtaking the West and the process has been accelerated by the recession.