澳大利亚房价会不会大跌？

Melbourne

全球金融海啸的影响也开始蔓延澳洲。股汇市就不必说了，澳洲的房产市场未来几年走势如何引发越来越多网友的关注。本地媒体也讨论热烈，各路专家学者各抒己见，莫衷一是。有的观点甚至大相径庭。

据2008年10月29日livenews报道，美林证券（不是已经被人吞并了吗？）预测，澳洲总体房价在未来两年将再跌7％（到目前已跌去3％），2009年的房产成交量将下降10％。

As a result Merrills said " We forecast total price declines of 10% (including the ~3% declines to date) over the next two years followed by 3-5 years of relatively flat growth (~CPI) while unemployment stabilises. We forecast volume declines of 10% in 2009.

这还是比较温和的预测。最极端的要数西悉尼大学的Steve Keen教授，他预测未来数年澳洲房价将下跌40％，大摩（Morgan Stanley）分析师Gerard Minack今年三月更表示澳洲房价将暴跌50％！

但也在今天，ANZ的首席经济学家Saul Eslake在他的一份研究报告中表示，澳洲房价不太可能大跌。简单地拿美国和英国的房市危机和澳洲做类比是不恰当的，因为澳洲和美国房贷市场有着根本的区别。

美国新建房远远超过了其国内需求，而澳洲目前的情况是由于移民数量庞大，新建房开工严重不足，上市房产供不应求，澳洲的上市二手房供应也不太多。

Eslake pointed out that despite these similarities, there are crucial differences between the Australian and American housing and mortgage markets.

"Australia does not have a physical excess supply of housing. America does, because unlike us, it actually built more new dwellings than it required to meet growth in underlying demand," he said. "In Australia, the reverse has happened; we haven't built enough dwellings to meet underlying demand, which has been pushed up by rising levels of immigration."

As a result, Eslake said that there is now a significant backlog of unmet underlying demand for housing.

"Australia also doesn't have a huge supply of existing dwellings for sale at any price hanging over the market because of the huge increase in foreclosures that has been the primary source of downward pressure on American house prices.